A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
